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ODB Story Is Not Going Away

He is a sure thing. Draft picks, by their nature, are not.

March 29, 2018 - 11:29 am

I’m not much into betting, but here’s a prop bet for you – which ends first: NFL kickoffs… or Odell Beckham rumors and speculation? At this rate, I’m guessing we’ll have robots placing the ball on the 25 after every score and people will still be talking about whether Odell Beckham should be, could be, or will be traded. 

And the latest item to get everyone buzzing  is the following tweet from Adam Schefter: ‘Giants have asked for at least two first-round picks in return for Odell Beckham Jr., a league source tells ESPN, even though team insists it is not shopping him. Doesn’t mean they get it, or close to it, or even trade OBJ. But they have asked for at least two first-round picks.’

So now we get to play the parlor game of “Would You Trade Two First Round Picks for Odell Beckham” and the answer is….HELL YES. Of course I would trade two number one picks to get him. And I’d be faxing paperwork to the league office before the Giants could get off the phone. 

The question is why would the Giants want to make that deal? Because while I’m trading two number ones all day long for Beckham, if I’m the Giants, I’m saying, you have to do better than that. If I’m the Giants, I’m not doing it. Not if you’re going with Eli Manning as your quarterback for the next year or two. And not if you like winning football games. Because the difference between the Giants with Beckham and the Giants without Beckham is shocking. 

He is a sure thing. Draft picks, by their nature, are not. What’s the rate of first round picks that turn into valuable contributors? Maybe you get lucky and you get two starters, but you might also end up with two slugs, who never pan out. Fact is, you don’t know what you’re getting. In Beckham, you know exactly what you have: a hall of fame talent, who is just 25 and who’s far and away your best player. And to me, two first rounder’s, especially if they’re lower in the first round, like say the Rams picks, are not enough for a guy like this. Regardless of how big of a headache you think he is. 

Go ask the Colts back in the day how having a couple of high draft picks worked out.  Not just high draft picks but the first and second picks in the entire draft. They literally had the first two picks in the NFL draft, selections number one and number two, they took Steve Emtman and Quentin Coryatt, a pair of All-Americans who were going to be the future of their defense, and ended up doing next to nothing in the NFL.

You’re not going to draft a WR better than Beckham and it’s nearly impossible to draft one, let alone, two Hall of Famers with those two picks. So what would you rather have? A Hall of Fame wide receiver or a starting safety and linebacker? Yeah, Beckham can be a headache, but would you like to have a guy whose super chill and just an average receiver or someone who can do what Beckham does?

So the question is why is this even a story. And that’s a great question. Is it a story because it might happen? Is it a story because the Giants are sick of this guy’s act? Or is it a story because they don’t want to pay him. Or  is it a story because the Giants are doing what every team does with every player and saying that there is a price for everyone? Because there is a price for everyone, even Tom Brady. Or are they just  looking to send Beckham a message and shake him up with all of this?

Probably all of the above. 

As always, when you’re talking about trading a superstar, the question is can you get value in return and generally speaking, in the NFL, the answer is no. How often do you see an NFL superstar get traded? Herschel Walker. Yeah, Brett Favre was traded, but Brett Favre wasn’t Brett Favre when he was traded. Champ Bailey was traded, but that was for Clinton Portis, so it was one star for another. It just doesn’t happen that often. 

What I’m saying is there is a ton of energy being spent and a lot ink being spilled on something that very well might never happen. Sure, it might happen. And if Beckham does get traded for two first round picks, then whoever gets Beckham absolutely worked  the Giants. 

The draft can’t get here fast enough, because at least that will end the “will Odell be traded” story. At least until after the draft and then it becomes the “will Odell hold out” story? 

As for the trade, if I’m the Rams, I send them my next two first rounder’s all day long. If I’m the Giants, I tell Les Snead, do better. That’s not enough. And if I’m Beckham, I continue to rehab my ass off and make sure I don’t end up getting grammed by some rando. And be sure to tune again tomorrow for another update. Because this story clearly is not going away.